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Se muestran los artículos pertenecientes a Noviembre de 2010.

Portugal :Acuerdo para recortar el déficit.

Periodo difícil

Los recortes de gastos, la mayor desde la década de 1970, puede afectar el crecimiento económico de Portugal, que tiene un promedio de menos del 1 por ciento anual en la última década.El gobierno confía en que las exportaciones, tales como productos de papel y madera para apoyar el crecimiento.

"El país está atravesando un período difícil, y los acuerdos son necesarios para las políticas fundamentales", dijo Eduardo Catroga, un ex ministro de Finanzas que representó a la oposición de centro reformista en las conversaciones, el 30 de octubre. El gobierno socialista accedió a reconsiderar los gastos previstas, incluidas subvenciones a las asociaciones público-privadas, Catroga dijo, sin nombrar a proyectos específicos

http://washpost.bloomberg.com/story?docId=1376-LB5NBK1A1I4H01-2ULKB0315LS01JVJVH0PNE4USI

01/11/2010 15:47 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

¿Que quiere Bernanke?

¿Alguien lee lo que dice y escribe Bernanke? Los gurús y expertos deberían estudiar más la realidad y dejar de hablar tanto de sus teorías.

El pasado 4 de noviembre, esto es, un día después de que la Fed diera a conocer un secreto a voces, Bernanke publicó un importante artículo en el Washington Post sobre la actuación de la Fed. ¿Alquien lo ha leído?

Para el que escribe, Bernanke es tan claro como el agua, ya que su actuación está dibujada desde que publicara su tesis de actuación (pincha), que ha seguido hasta hoy día. 

La Fed tiene dos misiones fundamentales. Por un lado, promover un alto nivel de empleo. Por otro, mantener la inflación baja y estable.

La reciente decisión de la Fed, esto es, la política conocida como QE2, entre otros, viene como consecuencia de el alto desempleo norteamericano, alrededor del 10%, y de la baja inflación existente, sobre el 2%.

Por tanto, con alto desempleo y baja inflación, la Fed considera que debe actuar para apoyar la frágil situación de la economía. Algo que muchos inversores temen, ya que este tipo de medidas podrían aumentar la inflación en el futuro. Sin embargo, para Bernanke, como para Keynes, "todos estamos muertos en el largo plazo".

Además, la Fed considera que aunque la baja inflación es buena en términos generales, una inflación demasiado baja plantea riesgos para la economía actual, dada su extrama fragilidad. Incluso, en los casos más extremos, una inflación muy baja puede transformarse en deflación (caída de los precios y los salarios), contribuyendo a largos periodos de estancamiento económico.

Por todo ello, Bernanke cree que promover condiciones financieras "más fáciles" ayudarán al crecimiento económico.  Por ejemplo, menores tasas en los "corporate bonds" fomentarán la inversión o la apreciación en los precios de las acciones aumentará la riqueza de los consumidores y con ello su confianza, que a su vez estimulará el gasto, dando con ello a mayores ingresos y ganancias que, en un círculo vicioso, seguirán apoyando la expansión económica.

En suma, tanto la Fed como la Casa Blanca reconocen que se están moviendo en un terreno poco estudiado y casi sin precedentes. Sin embargo, ese es el riesgo que se corre cuando se está en política, ya que las decisiones conllevan implicaciones prácticas.

Y es que 2+2 = 5

*Este post no está ni a favor ni encontra de la actuación de Bernanke.http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm

08/11/2010 02:55 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

German Finance Minister :'The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long'

'The US Has Lived on Borrowed Money for Too Long'

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.
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REUTERS

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

In an interview with SPIEGEL, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, 68, criticizes US calls for Germany to reduce exports, outlines his plans for an insolvency framework for indebted European nations and the emphasizes the significance of the German-French axis for Europe.

SPIEGEL: Minister Schäuble, how well do you get along with your American counterpart, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner?

 

Schäuble: Mr. Geithner is an excellent minister. We have a good personal relationship.

SPIEGEL: Nevertheless, he constantly criticizes government officials in countries that are achieving high export surpluses and not doing enough to stimulate their domestic economies. He's referring to you, isn't he?

Schäuble: It would appear that way. That's why I tell him again and again that I think his point of view is incorrect in this regard.

SPIEGEL: All the same, the value of goods Germany sold to the United States exceeded imports from that country by almost €14 billion (.8 billion) last year. Can't you understand that the American treasury secretary is concerned about this?

Schäuble: No, because since we introduced the euro in Europe, the determining factor is no longer US trade with Germany, but US trade with the totality of countries in the euro zone. And in that respect the balance of trade tends to be even. So what's the problem? After all, we don't complain about the export successes of individual American states.

SPIEGEL: But the German economy benefits from the fact that German industry has focused primarily on foreign markets and wages have hardly gone up in years. The Americans see this as unfair.

Schäuble: The German export successes are not the result of some sort of currency manipulation, but of the increased competitiveness of companies. The American growth model, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. The United States lived on borrowed money for too long, inflating its financial sector unnecessarily and neglecting its small and mid-sized industrial companies. There are many reasons for America's problems, but they don't include German export surpluses.

SPIEGEL: The US government sees it differently. It wants to see German exports to the United States curtailed in the future once they reach a certain threshold. Will you give in to the pressure?

Schäuble: The proposal is not acceptable for Germany under any circumstances. If we were to introduce such measures, we would be restricting international competition. But for years we, together with the Americans, have believed that world trade needs to be opened up further. We should stick to that approach and, for example, press ahead with the Doha round to promote world trade. This would stimulate global growth far more effectively than a bilateral agreement on quotas.

SPIEGEL: Last week, the US Federal Reserve Bank decided to flood the economy with 0 billion in new money. Will this stimulate the economy as hoped?

Schäuble: I seriously doubt that it makes sense to pump unlimited amounts of money into the markets. There is no lack of liquidity in the US economy, which is why I don't recognize the economic argument behind this measure.

SPIEGEL: The US wants to depress the value of the dollar in this way, so that it can sell its products abroad more easily. In light of the ailing US economy, isn't that a completely reasonable strategy?

Schäuble: No. The Fed's decisions bring more uncertainty to the global economy. They make it more difficult to achieve a reasonable balance between industrialized and emerging economies, and they undermine the US's credibility when it comes to fiscal policy. It's inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress the dollar exchange rate by printing money.

SPIEGEL: The G-20 nations will meet in South Korea this week to discuss the condition of the world economy two years after the deepest financial and economic crisis since the war. When the crisis erupted, the international community reacted with astonishing unanimity. But now many countries are trying to achieve advantages by influencing their exchange rates. Are you worried about a worldwide currency war?

Schäuble: I don't believe in such belligerent terms, but it's obvious that the global economy is in a tough situation. This is due to the enormous national debts many countries have taken on while fighting the crisis. Reducing these deficits is the primary objective, as the G-20 countries decided at their most recent summit in Toronto, where everyone, including the United States, agreed to cut their deficits by half by 2013. We should stick to these decisions, and if we do we will be able to curb unrest in the markets.

SPIEGEL: But the United States isn't the only country that's responsible for unrest in the markets. The euro crisis also continues to smolder. The risk premiums for government bonds from the crisis-plagued countries Ireland and Greece have gone up again. How much longer will it take before Europe has to issue new state guarantees?

Schäuble: I'm not that pessimistic in this regard. Although the Irish have accumulated huge debts to bail out their banks, they are making good progress in cleaning up their economy. And I also have great respect for the Greek government's resolve. A few months ago, hardly anyone would have believed that the Greeks would manage to implement such a drastic austerity program. They're moving in the right direction now.

SPIEGEL: Conditions in Europe are not as orderly as you describe. Just two weeks ago, the European Council (the EU body in Brussels that includes the heads of state and government of the membber states) decided to introduce a new crisis mechanism for over-indebted euro nations. Are you satisfied with the result?

Schäuble: The Council's decisions are a great success. Only a few weeks ago, many predicted that France would never support Germany in its commitment to a European crisis mechanism. And that the French would be willing to change the European treaties to do so was seen as completely out of the question. But then Chancellor (Angela) Merkel and President (Nicolas) Sarkozy met in Deauville and achieved a historic breakthrough on both issues. It's completely in line with the approach we Germans have always supported.

SPIEGEL: You can't possibly believe what you're saying. Until recently, Germany was demanding automatic penalties for countries that violated the debt rules of the euro zone. That demand is now off the table.

 

Schäuble: In Europe, it just so happens that you don't always get everything you wish for. The overwhelming majority of EU members have made it clear that they would not accept automatic sanctions. Our response was: Instead of fighting for something you can't have, we'll try to achieve what's feasible.

SPIEGEL: That sounds like supreme statesmanship. But now there will be no change to the situation on the European Council, where the offenders and the watchdogs remain identical, as former constitutional judge Paul Kirchhof has said. The countries that don't have their budgets under control are helping to decide what penalties will be imposed for that. This isn't the way to come up with effective, prompt sanctions.

Schäuble: I disagree. It will be much easier in the future to enforce sanctions against deficit sinners. We will also be able to take preventive action earlier in the game. Besides, it didn't exactly advance the German position when the red-green government (the former center-left coalition of Social Democratic Party and Green Party that governed from 1998 until 2005), together with the French government, did serious, lasting damage to the Stability and Growth Pact by saying: The pact applies to everyone, just not to the two largest member states.

10/11/2010 21:15 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Del Bail-Out al Bail-In, Europa debe prepararse para el default

 

Del Bail-Out al Bail-In, Europa debe prepararse para el default

10/11/2010 07:59h - Mal pinta Irlanda, con una deuda pública rozando el 8% a 10 años y sin más alternativa que dejar pasar el tiempo no parece que vaya a tener un futuro próspero. Por si fuera poco Alemania ha decidió que “ya está bien” son los acreedores quienes deben asumir pérdidas, no los contribuyentes, así que se ha desatado una nueva oleada de incertidumbre en el mercado ante el temor a las pérdidas que amenaza con volver a mostrar la cara más cruda a la deuda periférica. 
Hay quien dice que cuando la deuda supere en rendimiento el 8% se tendrá que dar un paso adelante en el rescate del “tigre celta”, en realidad la cantidad es lo de menos, el principal problema es que no tienen forma de salir de esta espiral. Para tratar de volver a la senda de la sostenibilidad han aprobado nuevos recortes de 15.000 millones en cuatro años y esperan aprobar más en el presupuesto de 2011 que deben firmar en Diciembre (nuevos conflictos a la vista) ¿todo por qué? Pues porque la inercia es de default, si no hacen nada el riesgo sube, si el BCE no compra su deuda el riesgo sube ¿hasta cuándo?
Deuda periférica
Miren la gráfica, las mayores compras de deuda del BCE se concentran obviamente en Mayo y Junio, a partir de Julio prácticamente no se interviene (cantidades pequeñas). Como el riesgo no se modera y vuelve a subir el Banco Central insiste a principios de Octubre comprando cantidades superiores a 1.000 millones, lejos de Mayo pero importantes igualmente. Y siempre volvemos a lo mismo, la semana pasada viendo que marcaba nuevos máximos se compraron 711 millones más. Repito, ¿hasta cuándo?
Cierto es que tienen sus necesidades de financiación cubiertas hasta dentro de unos meses, pero visto lo visto no parece que las condiciones de financiación vayan a ser más favorables para entonces. Además siempre hay un nuevo disgusto que lo estropea, al principio descubrimos que el adulado tigre celta creaba un banco malo llamado NAMA, luego que tenía que hacer un rescate a mayores de la banca, que su déficit podría llegar este año al 32%, la deuda pública al 100% en unos meses... y ahora no se pierdan los últimos datos sobre el mercado hipotecario, un 30% de las hipotecas podrían tener “equity negativo”, es decir, la deuda vale más que la propiedad, lo que representa más del 10% de hogares. ¿Sorpresa? Desgraciadamente no, ya no queda mucha esperanza en que las cosas salgan bien.
Equity negativo
El gobierno irlandés no tiene que financiarse hasta dentro de unos meses, ok, ¿pero si hay que poner más dinero fresco para los bancos cómo se hará? Las hipotecas con equity negativo pueden ser pronto un grave problema. Además, parece que el juego ha cambiado, antes estaban de moda los “bailouts” y ahora Alemania ha dicho basta y propone los “bail-ins” ¿en qué consisten? Pues básicamente en que el acreedor debe aceptar una quita para reestructurar la deuda, es decir, la solución pasa por una “suspensión de pagos”. Dicho mecanismo podría empezar a aplicarse en 2013 substituyéndolo por el actual plan de rescate. Como por fin alguien decide eliminar el “riesgo moral”, y aceptar que los inversores (principalmente bancos) deben asumir pérdidas si ponen su dinero en un mal activo, el interés por los bonos irlandeses se esfuma. China que anda de compras y firmando acuerdos por todo Europa curiosamente aquí no da señales de vida ¿qué solución queda?
Exposición deuda pública irlanda
La lista muestra la exposición a la deuda irlandesa de la banca (nota: si hay defaults menos créditos a la economía real). Señalar también que UK y Alemania acapara la mayor exposición si añadimos la deuda privada, tienen unos 250.000 millones un tercio del total. 
Ahora toca prepararse ante lo que parece inevitable, un rebrote de la crisis europea, primero le tocará a Portugal y nosotros somos su máximo acreedor, ha hecho bien el Tesoro en aprovisionarse con 40.000 millones en liquidez que sin duda no han acumulado por casualidad sino por lo que puede pasar. No debemos entrar en pánico pero sí pensar en realizar reformas reales en la economía, les dejo un vídeo del lunes en Singulars en donde el excelente economista Luis Garicano señala los principales problemas que tenemos y debemos evitar, así como las soluciones que seguramente se están manejando. Creo que nos cansaremos de escuchar lo que se dice en este vídeo de aquí en adelante, y será buena señal, significará que pensamos cómo no convertirnos en un país con estancamiento crónico, ojalá lo consigamos.

 

http://www.cotizalia.com/perlas-kike-vazquez/

10/11/2010 21:57 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema Hay 1 comentario.

Euro Drops as Spain Economy Stalls, Irish Debt Concern Lingers

20101111144237-fmi-espana.jpg

Euro Drops as Spain Economy Stalls, Irish Debt Concern Lingers

Nov 11, 2010 7:33 am ET

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro slid against the dollar and yen as France backed German calls to make investors share the costs of restructuring sovereign debt, Spain’s economy stalled and Ireland’s fiscal crisis drove down bank stocks.

The single currency declined versus 13 of its 15 most- traded peers, and approached the lowest in more than a month versus the greenback. The Dollar Index advanced for a fifth day, its longest run of gains since August, amid renewed concern that Europe’s so-called peripheral countries will struggle to cut budget deficits. The pound rose to a six-week high against the euro, boosted by speculation the Bank of England won’t extend its bond-purchase program.

“The focus is on the euro and what’s happening in the periphery,” said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global foreign- exchange strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “We are at a critical point for the euro.”

The euro traded at .3709 at 6:51 a.m. in New York from .3783 yesterday, when it declined to .3671, its weakest since Oct. 5. Europe’s common currency slipped to 112.75 yen from 113.41 yesterday. The dollar was unchanged at 82.28 yen.

“All stakeholders must participate in the gains and losses of any particular situation” as a “point of principle,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said during an interview with Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Francine Lacqua.

Spain, Ireland

Spain’s third-quarter gross domestic product was unchanged from the previous three months after two quarters of growth, state statistics showed, as the nation implements the deepest austerity measures in three decades. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Spanish bonds instead of German bunds climbed to 215 basis points today, the most since June.

Stoxx Europe 600 bank shares slid for a second day, paced by a 9.1 percent drop by Bank of Ireland, the nation’s largest lender. Irish debt spreads over German bunds surged to a record, a day after bond-clearing house LCH Clearnet Ltd. demanded clients place larger deposits when trading the nation’s debt.

European Union members are checking whether Ireland needs financial aid from a 750 billion-euro rescue fund, Handelsblatt said today, citing government officials it didn’t identify. Ireland hasn’t yet requested aid, the report said.

Europe’s common currency has lost 1.1 percent against nine developed-nation counterparts in the past week, Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes show. The currency has dropped amid bets that the fiscal crisis in the region and potential bank losses will force the central bank to reverse plans to exit its stimulus measures.

Exit ‘in Tatters’

The “ECB exit strategy in tatters means strong euro story in tatters too,” Kit Juckes, London-based head of foreign- exchange research at Societe Generale AG, wrote in an e-mail today. “The ECB’s exit strategy drove euro rates and the currency. Even central banks don’t always get what they want for Christmas.”

IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, rose 0.3 percent to 77.886. The dollar benefits from its status as a haven from financial turmoil.

The British pound gained 0.6 percent to 84.96 pence per euro, after trading at 84.88 pence, the strongest level since Sept. 28. It was 0.1 percent stronger at .6138.

The Bank of England, led by Governor Mervyn King, yesterday unveiled higher predictions for inflation next year and said prices are equally likely to exceed or undershoot the 2 percent target over two years. The bank also said it “stood ready to respond in either direction.”

Faster Gains

The dollar weakened earlier against most of its major counterparts after China’s yuan rose to the strongest level since 1993, fueling speculation the Asian nation is allowing faster gains as Group of 20 leaders meet in Seoul.

G-20 nations including China are trying to forge an agreement on currencies that goes beyond an accord reached by finance ministers and central bank governors last month, the group’s committee spokesman Kim Yoon Kyung said in Seoul today.

Finance ministers agreed in October to “move towards more market-determined exchange rate systems that reflect underlying economic fundamentals and refrain from the competitive devaluation of currencies.” G-20 leaders are gathering for a two-day summit starting today.

The U.S. currency slipped 0.2 percent to 6.6238 yuan.

--With assistance from Emma Ross-Thomas in Madrid, Ron Harui in Singapore and Monami Yui in Tokyo. Editors: Mark McCord, Peter Branton.

11/11/2010 14:42 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Angst um den Euro kehrt mit Macht zurück .Vuelve el miedo por el €:

Währungen

(224) Drucken Bewerten   Autor: C. B. Schiltz und J. Hildebrand| 11.11.2010

Angst um den Euro kehrt mit Macht zurück

In hohen EU-Kreisen wächst die Nervosität. Anleger verabschieden sich aus irischen und portugiesischen Anleihen. Der Euro-Kurs fällt.

Euro unter Druck Foto: dapd Der Euro kommt durch die auseinanderlaufenden Spreads stark unter Druck

Die Skepsis vieler Investoren gegenüber Staatsanleihen aus Irland und anderen hoch verschuldeten Ländern der Euro-Zone ist am Donnerstag weiter gewachsen. In der Folge gab der Euro auf bis zu 1,3657 Dollar von 1,3780 Dollar zum US-Vortagesschluss nach. Müssen die europäischen Steuerzahler nach Griechenland bald auch Irland vor dem Bankrott retten? In hohen EU-Kreisen wächst die Nervosität über die Risikoaufschläge für irische Staatsanleihen, die gestern mit 680 Basispunkten für zehnjährige Bonds zur Bundesanleihe ein neues Hoch erreichten.

 

Foto: Infografik WELT ONLINE Spread: Renditeaufschlag irischer Anleihen im Vergleich zur deutschen Bundesanleihe

Gleichzeitig steigt in vielen EU-Ländern der Unmut über eine von Deutschland und Frankreich geforderte Klausel, ab dem Jahr 2013 private Gläubiger von vornherein bei künftigen Staatspleiten in die Pflicht zu nehmen. „Deutschland hat wieder einmal den großen Mann hervorgekehrt. Das wird für immer mehr Länder zum Problem. Aber gegen Deutschland lässt sich derzeit nichts durchsetzen“, sagte ein EU-Spitzendiplomat. Die Angst privater Gläubiger, künftig an einer Umschuldung beteiligt zu werden, hat dazu geführt, dass sich viele Anleger von Anleihen aus Irland, Portugal, Spanien und Italien verabschieden. Der Chef der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Jean-Claude Trichet, und der Vorsitzende der 16 Euro-Länder, Luxemburgs Premierminister Jean-Claude Juncker, hatten noch beim EU-Gipfel Ende Oktober vor dieser Entwicklung gewarnt. „Die Märkte reagieren jetzt völlig irrational. Aber sollte keine Ruhe einkehren, werden wir an einer Hilfsaktion für Irland nicht vorbeikommen“, heißt es in Brüssel.

Der von EU und Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF) aufgespannte Rettungsschirm für Pleiteländer der Euro-Zone umfasst 750 Mrd. Euro. „Wir haben alle nötigen Instrumente, um Irland zu unterstützen, falls dies nötig sein sollte“, sagte EU-Kommissionschef Jose Manuel Barroso gestern beim Treffen der G-20-Staaten im südkoreanischen Seoul. Die Märkte beruhigte er damit nicht. Der Euro fiel auf bis zu 1,3657 Dollar. Irlands Finanzminister Brian Lenihan sagte, er werde „auf keinen Fall“ einen Hilfsantrag nach Brüssel schicken. Milliarden-Ausgaben zur Rettung heimischer Banken haben Irland in diesem Jahr ein Rekorddefizit von 32 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) beschert. Nach eigenen Angaben muss das Land bis zu 50 Mrd. Euro zur Rettung von Banken ausgeben. „Dabei ist leider überhaupt nicht sicher, dass die Banken damit gerettet sind und im kommenden Jahr nicht wieder hohe Milliarden-Beträge nötig sein werden“, sagte ein EU-Beamter voller Sorge. Dennoch versicherte die Regierung in Dublin, das Land sei in der Lage, seinen angeschlagenen Haushalt aus eigener Kraft in den Griff zu bekommen.

Stabilitätspakt – was sich ändert, was bleibt

Staaten, die 1999 den Euro einführen wollten, mussten gewisse Kriterien erfüllen. Auf Drängen des deutschen Finanzministers Theo Waigel (CSU) beschloss die EU schon 1996, zwei davon den Ländern zur Dauer-Auflage zu machen, um die Stabilität der Währung zu sichern:

Auch in Berlin wurde beruhigt. Irland und Portugal seien dabei, ihre Haushalte in Ordnung zu bringen, hieß es aus dem Bundesfinanzministerium (BMF). Es gebe kein Anzeichen, dass sie einen Hilfsantrag stellen müssen. Zudem wurde darauf verwiesen, dass Irland bis Mitte 2011 kein neues Geld am Kapitalmarkt aufnehmen muss. „Der Markt ist trotzdem sehr nervös“, sagte Markit-Analyst Gavan Nolan. 20 von 30 durch die Nachrichtenagentur Reuters befragte Analysten erklärten, sie rechneten mit einem irischen Hilfsgesuch bis Ende 2011. Aber nicht nur Irland – wo allein deutsche Banken gegenüber Staat, Banken, Unternehmen und den privaten Haushalten 138 Mrd. Dollar an Forderungen halten – bereitet den Märkten zunehmend Kopfzerbrechen.

Auch die Zweifel an der Zahlungsfähigkeit Portugals – dessen strukturelle Wirtschaftsprobleme viel größer sind als in Irland – steigen. Der Spread der zehnjährigen Titel stieg im Vergleich zu den entsprechenden Bundespapieren auf ein erneutes Rekordhoch von 489 Basispunkten.

Griechenland Regierungschef Giorgos Papandreou teilte unterdessen mit, dass die Neuverschuldung Griechenlands in diesem Jahr höher ausfallen werde als zunächst vereinbart. Sein Land werde das Defizitziel von 8,1 Prozent des BIP überschreiten, sagte der Premierminister. Schlechte Nachrichten auch vom Arbeitsmarkt: Die Erwerbslosenquote stieg auf 12,2 Prozent, ein Rekordhoch. Die EU-Länder und der IWF hatten Griechenland Anfang des Jahres 110 Mrd. Euro Kredithilfen zugesagt.

12/11/2010 10:06 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Ireland Urged to Take Aid by European Officials

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Nov 13, 2010 4:39 am ET

(Updates to add Irish Times report in ninth paragraph, Trichet declining to comment in fifth paragraph and Strauss-Kahn remarks in eighth paragraph.)

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland is being urged by European policy makers to take emergency aid to contain a debt crisis rattling their markets, according to a person briefed on the discussions.

In a conference call of European Central Bank officials around noon Frankfurt time yesterday, Ireland was pressed to seek outside help within days, the person said on condition of anonymity. Separately, a European Union official said a request for assistance was likely even as Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told RTE Radio that such a call “makes no sense” as the government is fully funded to mid-2011.

Irish bonds rose from a record low yesterday, gaining for the first time in 14 days as traders bet a bailout was near. Prime Minister Brian Cowen said for the first time that he is working with fellow EU leaders as “there are issues affecting the wider euro area” and that they are trying to “ensure that the bond markets respond positively to the euro.” He reiterated that his debt-strapped country has not sought cash.

“It seems difficult for Ireland to avoid tapping the fund unless they have new rabbits to pull out their hat,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London.

An ECB spokeswoman declined to comment and the Finance Ministry in Dublin said no talks on emergency funds were under way. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking today in Tutzing, Germany, declined to comment on Ireland.

Possible Aid

Ireland could draw on the 60 billion euro ( billion) segment of the broader 750-billion-euro fund set up by the EU and International Monetary Fund in May, Irish state broadcaster RTE said, without saying where it obtained the information. The smaller pool is funded directly by the European Commission, the EU’s Brussels-based executive branch.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs the panel of euro-area finance ministers, said yesterday there was “no immediate reason” to think Ireland will request cash and that officials would not meet before regular monthly talks in Brussels next week.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said he was prepared to help. “If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready,” he told reporters today in Yokohama, Japan.

Cowen’s Conversations

Cowen yesterday spoke to Trichet, European Commission President Jose Barroso and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, resisting the bailout that EU officials hope would calm markets, the Irish Times reported without citing sources.

The premium that investors demand to hold Irish 10-year sovereign bonds over the benchmark German bonds was 564 basis points at 3:59 p.m. in London, down from a record 646 points yesterday.

Yields on bonds of Spain and Portugal jumped earlier in the week amid concern that fallout from Ireland would spread. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds instead of German bunds climbed to a record 484 basis points on Nov. 11.

A decision by Ireland to use the European Financial Stability Facility would be a “circuit breaker” for the market turmoil and boost the euro, Emma Lawson, a Hong Kong-based currency strategist at Morgan Stanley, said in a report yesterday.

Euro’s Decline

At the end of European trading yesterday the euro was poised for its biggest weekly loss since August although it climbed yesterday from a six-week low against the dollar.

Ireland’s woes formed part of the debate at the Seoul summit of Group of 20 leaders, from which the finance chiefs of Germany, France, the U.K., Spain and Italy successfully cooled market concerns by saying in a statement that a plan being debated to have investors cover future bailout costs would have “no impact whatsoever” on existing debt.

The drafting of that crisis program hasn’t “been helpful,” Cowen said in an interview with the Irish Independent newspaper published yesterday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected such criticism, saying in Seoul yesterday “the future crisis mechanism has nothing to do with the debate going on right now.”

“Clarification was needed and it is good news it’s now out there,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Bailout Fund

EU countries established the bailout fund in May to protect the euro area from the fallout of the Greek-led debt crisis. Speculation has grown that Ireland would need it after a housing-led recession and the need to save its biggest lenders plunged it into fiscal turmoil.

Bailing out Ireland’s financial system could cost as much as 50 billion euros under a “stress case” scenario compiled by the Finance Ministry and central bank. The country’s gross funding need for 2011 will be 23.5 billion euros, falling to 18.6 billion euros in 2014, the nation’s debt agency said yesterday.

Irish officials have indicated they hope a 2011 budget, due for release on Dec. 7, will placate markets as they try to cut a budget deficit which will be about 12 percent of gross domestic product this year, or 32 percent when the costs of the banking rescue are included. Lenihan’s plan includes 6 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases next year.

Time Needed

“The more time elapses, the bigger is the chance that the results of fiscal policies will show,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London. “The more time elapses before a country taps the fund the better.”

Ireland’s banks are nevertheless becoming more dependent on the European Central Bank after it said in September saving its lenders may cost as much as 50 billion euros as the state sinks more funds into nationalized Anglo Irish Bank Corp. and other lenders. Lenders’ borrowings from the ECB rose 7 percent last month, according to statistics published on the central bank’s website yesterday.

“The chances are rather big that at some point they need to ask for financial assistance just to calm down the situation,” Aline Schuiling, an economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam, said yesterday. “There will have to be a solution.”

--With assistance from John Fraher in Cork, Jana Randow in Frankfurt, Matthew Brown and Gabi Thesing in Tutzing, Germany, Stephanie Bodoni in Luxembourg and Kathleen Chu in Tokyo. Editors: James Hertling, Kevin Costelloe

13/11/2010 11:26 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Germany Said to Press Ireland to Seek European Aid

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Nov 14, 2010 4:09 am ET

(Adds report on Lenihan in paragraph six.)

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Germany is pressing Ireland to seek aid before a Nov. 16 meeting of European finance ministers to calm market volatility and win agreement on making investors help pay for future bailouts, a German government official said.

Unless investor concerns about an Irish default are allayed, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to require investors to take write-offs in sovereign rescues as part of a crisis- resolution mechanism to take effect in 2013 will be jeopardized, said the official, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

Merkel has publicly clashed with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet over the permanent mechanism, which is to be drafted by mid-December, with Trichet saying that requiring investors to take losses in a sovereign rescue would undermine confidence. Euro-area leaders are divided over Merkel’s proposal as well as over whether Ireland should seek aid now, said the German official.

An Irish request for aid “would take pressure off the discussion of the mechanism right now,” said Carsten Brzeski, a senior economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. “But once that’s decided upon we will get only new speculation about what it means for all of the countries using the fund as 2013 nears.”

Ireland says no aid talks are under way and that it doesn’t need the money, even as traders anticipating a bailout sent Irish debt soaring Nov. 12. A request for aid may total about 80 billion euros (0 billion) between 2011 and 2013, according to Barclays Capital.

Irish Resistance

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will resist any effort at the finance ministers’ meeting to be forced to tap the European Financial Stability Facility, the Sunday Times reported today without citing sources.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs the group of euro-area finance ministers, said Nov. 12 there was “no immediate reason” to think Ireland will request cash and that officials wouldn’t meet before the regular monthly talks in Brussels.

While Ireland says it doesn’t need to raise money until mid-2011, its shattered banks, which have grown increasingly reliant on the ECB, may be the focus of policy makers.

Bailing out Ireland’s financial system could cost as much as 50 billion euros under a “stress case” scenario compiled by the Finance Ministry and central bank. The country’s gross funding need for 2011 will be 23.5 billion euros, falling to 18.6 billion euros in 2014, the nation’s debt agency says.

The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said yesterday in Yokohama, Japan.

IMF ‘Ready’

“So far I haven’t received any kind of request,” he said. “If at one point in time, tomorrow, in two months or two years, the Irish want support from the IMF, we will be ready.”

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said for the first time Nov. 12 that he was working with fellow EU leaders as “there are issues affecting the wider euro area” and that they are trying to “ensure that the bond markets respond positively to the euro.” He reiterated that his debt-strapped country hasn’t sought cash.

In a Nov. 12 conference call of ECB officials, Ireland was pressed to seek outside help within days, a person briefed on the discussions said on condition of anonymity. Separately, an EU official said a request for assistance was likely even as Lenihan told RTE Radio that such a call “makes no sense” because the government is fully funded into next year.

Merkel’s Appeal

Settling concerns over Ireland would help Germany make its case to other euro-area countries on debt write-offs, the German official said. Speaking in Seoul before the Group of 20 summit last week, Merkel appealed to markets for understanding over her push to force investors to help pay for any future crises, acknowledging that her stance risks stoking “conflict.”

“I ask the markets sometimes to bear politicians in mind, too,” Merkel said. “We can’t constantly explain to our voters that taxpayers have to be on the hook for certain risks rather than those who make a lot of money taking those risks.”

Juncker, Trichet and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero have criticized her stance. Zapatero said Nov. 12 that Spain opposes her plans, and so “it won’t be easy” for her to win agreement for the proposal.

“This could potentially drive investors from the euro zone, especially from the peripheral countries,” Juncker told European lawmakers in Brussels Nov. 8. Europe would be isolated by declaring “ex ante that in every instance of crisis resolution, the private sector has to be implicated.”

Bond Slump

Bonds in Ireland, Portugal and Greece have plummeted since EU leaders agreed on Oct. 29 to draft a permanent crisis mechanism to replace the euro rescue fund set up in May once its mandate expires in 2013.

Merkel’s proposal to involve debt restructuring with losses for private holders of sovereign bonds hasn’t “been helpful,” Cowen said in an interview with the Irish Independent newspaper published Nov. 12. Merkel rejected such criticism, saying in Seoul “the future crisis mechanism has nothing to do with the debate going on right now.”

The premium that investors demand to hold Irish 10-year sovereign bonds over the benchmark German bonds fell to 564 basis points by the end of the week, down from a record 646 points Nov. 11.

Yields on bonds of Spain and Portugal also jumped earlier in the week amid concern that fallout from Ireland would spread. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds instead of German bunds climbed to a record 484 basis points on Nov. 11.

G-20 Statement

Ireland’s woes formed part of the debate at the Seoul summit, from which the finance chiefs of Germany, France, the U.K., Spain and Italy successfully cooled market concerns by saying in a statement that a plan being debated to have investors cover future bailout costs would have “no impact whatsoever” on existing debt.

“Clarification was needed and it is good news it’s now out there,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Irish officials have indicated they hope a 2011 budget, due for release on Dec. 7, will placate markets as they try to cut a budget deficit which will be about 12 percent of gross domestic product this year, or 32 percent when the costs of the banking rescue are included. Lenihan’s plan includes 6 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases next year.

--With assistance from John Fraher in Cork, Dara Doyle in Dublin, Gabi Thesing in Tutzing, Germany, and Kathleen Chu in Tokyo. Editors: Alan Crawford, Mark Rohner

 

 

Crazy Horse :Chavez Creates Socialist Bourse, Promises High Yields.

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Crazy Horse :Chavez Creates Socialist Bourse, Promises High Yields

Nov 14, 2010 2:45 pm ET

(Adds Chavez’s comments in fourth paragraph.)

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he signed a law to create a “socialist” state-run Public Bond Market that will offer local investors high yields to stimulate saving.

The Public Bond Market, which will begin operations in December, will allow state-run companies to sell debt to finance operations and individuals to seek investment opportunities, Chavez said.

Chavez tightened his grip on the financial industry this year by closing more than a dozen banks and 40 brokerages that he said committed “fraud” and set artificial exchange rates. He said investors will have their investments guaranteed by the state. Caracas’s private stock exchange has seen trading volumes plummet since 2007 after the nationalization of companies including Cemex SAB and Cia Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela, known as CANTV.

“The banking and brokerage crisis has allowed us to draft this law,” Chavez said today on state television during his “Alo Presidente” program. “Don’t spend all your year-end bonuses, invest in the bourse and the state will guarantee your money with good yields.”

Yields Rise

The government’s average dollar-bond yield rose 20 basis points, or 0.2 percentage points, to 13.23 percent on Nov. 12, according to JPMorgan indexes.

A draft of the bill that was approved in the National Assembly said that besides state companies, joint ventures, community councils and private companies will be authorized to sell debt to finance operations.

The Securities Regulator authorized state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA to sell billion of bonds due in 2017. The bonds were sold on Oct. 25 in the secondary market through the Public Bond Market, according to a statement dated Oct. 8 and published Nov. 10.

The law will be published tomorrow in the government’s Official Gazette and the Finance Ministry and Securities Regulator will provide more information, Chavez said. The government has assigned a headquarters for the bourse, Chavez said, without providing the location.

“The public bond market has been born as a product of the terminal crisis of Venezuelan capitalism,” he said from the Miraflores presidential palace. “Venezuelan capitalists are walking around at 5 a.m. like Dracula who hasn’t drunk his blood.”

--Editors: Paul Cox, Theo Mullen

German Investor Confidence Gains More Than Forecast

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Nov and Mateo Mathaus 16, 2010 5:08 am ET

(Updates with current conditions in fifth paragraph.)

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- German investor confidence rose for the first time in seven months in November as the economy, Europe’s largest, powered ahead of its euro-area neighbors.

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, increased to 1.8 from minus 7.2 in October. Economists expected a gain to minus 6, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Germany’s economy will expand 3.7 percent this year, according to the government’s council of economic advisers. That would be fastest growth since 1991. The performance contrasts with fellow euro-region nations such as Ireland and Greece, whose economies are contracting as their governments slash spending to rein in budget deficits.

“I doubt that the current periphery troubles will have clouded analysts’ views of the German economy,” said Jens Kramer, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. “Every single indicator shows German growth remains robust. Growth is broadening and the domestic economy is picking up.”

ZEW said its gauge of the current situation increased to 81.5 from 72.6. The euro rose after the report to .3612 from .3592 beforehand.

The benchmark DAX share index has risen 10 percent in the last six weeks, unperturbed by Ireland’s worsening fiscal crisis as German companies reported higher profits.

Profits Surge

Of the 28 companies on the DAX that have announced quarterly results since Oct. 7, more than two thirds have beaten analyst estimates for per-share income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Linde AG, the world’s second biggest maker of industrial gases, said on Nov. 2 that third-quarter profit rose 50 percent.

German export-oriented companies have benefitted from stronger demand from emerging economies, particularly China.

Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, said on Nov. 12 that October sales rose more than twice as fast as the worldwide auto-market average, as demand for its VW and Audi models in the U.S. and China surged.

The German economy grew 0.7 percent in the third quarter after record expansion of 2.3 percent in the second, outpacing the euro region as a whole.

Debt Crisis

Still, the sovereign-debt crisis may damp German growth by curtailing demand for its goods across the region as governments introduce austerity measures.

Germany is leading a drive to remedy Ireland’s debt woes before other countries succumb to the speculation that claimed Greece as the first victim.

After 13 straight days of price declines, Irish bonds began to rally late last week as investors bet a bailout is imminent from the European Union’s 750 billion-euro ( trillion) fund, which was created with help from the International Monetary Fund in May to stabilize the 16-nation euro economy.

“If May’s experience is anything to go by, Germany will actually be a beneficiary of the current Ireland/Portugal crisis,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “It will weigh on the euro and it’ll keep interest rates low.”

--With assistance from Gabi Thesing in Frankfurt and Jana Randow in Mannheim. Editors: Matthew Brockett, Jennifer Freedman

Handelsblatt :La verdadera amenaza para el euro viene de España.


Euro-Krise: Der spanische Patient ängstigt die Märkte

Noch stehen Irland und Portugal im Mittelpunkt der Euro-Krise. Doch die wirkliche Gefahr für die Stabilität der Währungsunion geht von Spanien aus. Würden die Investoren das Vertrauen in das große EU-Land verlieren, könnte die Schuldenkrise eine völlig neue Qualität bekommen.

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Spaniens Premierminister Jose Luis Zapatero muss das Vertrauen der Anleger gewinnen. Quelle: dapdLupe

Spaniens Premierminister Jose Luis Zapatero muss das Vertrauen der Anleger gewinnen. Quelle: dapd

FRANKFURT/MADRID/LONDON. Sichtlich ermüdet präsentierte sich Spaniens Premier José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero nach Abschluss des G20-Gipfels in Seoul der Presse. Wieder einmal verhagelt ihm die Nachrichtenlage den Triumph, dass Spanien unter seiner Ägide erneut als Gast zu dem Treffen der 20 wichtigsten Industrie- und Schwellenländer eingeladen wurde. Stattdessen interessierte die Journalisten vor allem eines: Wird auch Zapateros Land in den Strudel der Schuldenkrise gezogen, die schon Griechenland, Irland und Portugal erschüttert?

Die Märkte beantworten diese Frage mit Ja. Die sich gegenläufig zum Kurs entwickelnde Rendite zehnjähriger spanischer Anleihen ist in diesem Monat rasant auf bis zu 4,6 Prozent gestiegen. Damit lag sie fast so hoch wie auf dem bisherigen Höhepunkt der Euro-Krise im Mai. Die Risikoprämie - der Renditeaufschlag von spanischen zu deutschen Staatsanleihen - lag vergangene Woche mit 2,2 Prozentpunkten schon höher als im Mai, und die Kosten von Derivaten, mit denen sich Anleger vor einem Zahlungsausfall Spaniens schützen können, erreichten ein Allzeithoch. Am Freitag entspannte sich die Lage zwar für alle Euro-Randländer etwas, trotzdem warnen Experten vor einer Zuspitzung der Lage. Denn sollte auch Spanien in den Sog der Marktturbulenzen geraten, hätte das Folgen für die Stabilität der gesamten Währungsunion.

"Würden die Investoren das Vertrauen in ein großes EU-Land wie Spanien verlieren, bekäme die Schuldenkrise eine völlig neue Qualität", fürchtet Daniel McCormack von der Investmentbank Macquarie. "Spanien macht zwölf Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung der Euro-Zone aus, mehr als dreimal so viel wie Irland und Portugal zusammengenommen", rechnet der Volkswirt vor.

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"Die Investoren sind nervös, und die Panik kann sich schnell ausbreiten", warnt David Schnautz, Zinsstratege bei der Commerzbank. Sollte die zehnjährige Rendite spanischer Anleihen deutlich über fünf Prozent steigen, könne deshalb rasch der Verdacht aufkommen, dass die Iberer als Nächstes internationale Hilfe brauchen, um ihre Finanzprobleme in den Griff zu bekommen. Am Wochenende liefen die Spekulationen heiß, dass Irland schon bald unter den Rettungsschirm der EU und des Internationalen Währungsfonds schlüpfen muss. Die Risikoaufschläge für irische und portugiesische Staatsanleihen waren in der vergangenen Woche beinahe täglich auf neue Rekorde geschnellt.

"Spanien würde den Rettungsfonds mit seinem hohen Refinanzierungsbedarf im Zweifelsfall sehr stark strapazieren", fürchtet Schnautz. Er erwartet, dass Spanien allein im nächsten Jahr 175 Mrd. Euro an kurz laufenden Geldmarktpapieren und länger laufenden Anleihen an den Markt bringen muss. Der im Mai aufgelegte und bis Mitte 2013 geltende Rettungsfonds ist 750 Mrd. Euro schwer, kann aber nur maximal rund 600 Mrd. Euro an Krediten auszahlen. Grund dafür ist, dass der Fonds einen Puffer einbehalten muss, um von den Ratingagenturen die bestmögliche Bonitätsnote Dreifach-A zu bekommen

De l’Irlande au Portugal, la zone euro de nouveau ébranlée

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    Herman Van Rompuy estime que l’Europe monétaire et donc toute l’Union jouent leur “survie”. Un petit vent de panique a de nouveau soufflé hier sur les marchés financiers en raison de la résurgence de craintes à propos de la zone euro. Des rumeurs circulaient sur un plan d’aide pour l’Irlande voire le Portugal alors qu’un Eurogroupe réunissant les ministres des Finances de la zone euro avait lieu en fin d’après-midi. "La Commission travaille de concert avec la Banque centrale européenne et le Fonds monétaire international et bien entendu les autorités irlandaises en vue de résoudre les graves problèmes du secteur bancaire irlandais", a déclaré le commissaire européen aux Affaires économiques Olli Rehn, en arrivant à la réunion des grands argentiers de l’Union monétaire. Le président du Conseil européen, Herman Van Rompuy, a rajouté au climat d’inquiétude en faisant une déclaration assez inhabituelle pour cet homme aux propos en général assez prudents. "Nous sommes confrontés à une crise pour notre survie", a-t-il affirmé lors d’une intervention devant un centre de réflexion bruxellois, le European Policy Center. "Nous devons tous travailler de concert afin de permettre à la zone euro de survivre. Car si la zone euro ne survit pas, l’Union européenne ne survivra pas non plus", a-t-il ajouté. La première année du traité de Lisbonne, entré en vigueur en décembre 2009, "a été marquée par la crise de la zone euro, c’était une période de survie et ce n’est pas encore terminé", a encore souligné le président du Conseil européen, dont le poste a été créé par le traité. Plutôt que l’Irlande, c’est le secteur bancaire, mis particulièrement en difficulté par l’éclatement de la bulle immobilière, qui devrait être mis sous perfusion. "Les banques irlandaises ont un vrai problème de financement", commente Bertrand Veraghaenne, chief economist à la Banque Transatlantique Belgium. Ce plan d’action rapide serait poussé par la Banque centrale européenne car elle redoute de graves répercussions sur le marché des emprunts d’Etat, selon des sources diplomatiques. Les inquiétudes sont d’ailleurs vives concernant une possible contagion de la crise irlandaise à des pays comme le Portugal, la Grèce ou l’Espagne, dont les taux d’emprunt à long terme ont également flambé la semaine dernière. Le ministre portugais des Finances, Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, a parlé d’un risque "élevé" que son pays doive aussi faire appel à l’aide de l’Europe. "Nous ne faisons pas face au problème d’un seul pays. C’est le problème de la Grèce, du Portugal et de l’Irlande", a-t-il dit. La ministre de l’Economie espagnole, Elena Salgado, a quant à elle essayé de calmer les esprits en assurant mardi qu’il n’y avait "aucune raison" que son pays soit affecté par la situation de l’Irlande et du Portugal. Ces nouvelles craintes ont eu de multiples effets sur les marchés. Elles ont d’abord affaibli l’euro qui est tombé aux alentours de 1,35 dollar. Elles ont également fait baisser les indices boursiers avec des reculs de près de 2 % un peu partout en Europe. Enfin, elles ont relancé la ruée vers le papier obligataire le plus sûr, à savoir les emprunts d’Etat allemand et accru le sentiment de défiance vis-à-vis des emprunts de l’Irlande et des pays de l’Europe du sud. Pour Bertrand Veraghaenne, la correction boursière d’hier n’a rien d’étonnant. "Les marchés étaient devenus trop complaisants par rapport à la crise de la dette souveraine". Pour lui, les dégâts ne seront pas trop graves si la crise se limite à la Grèce, au Portugal et à l’Irlande. Mais si le quatrième domino tombe, à savoir l’Espagne, "on ne pourra pas l’absorber", prévient-il. Pour lui, un éclatement de la zone euro dans les deux à trois prochaines années "n’est pas impossible". Il évalue ces risques entre 20 et 30 %.

17/11/2010 19:11 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

I did not mislead public on Ireland bailout talks, says Irish PM Brian Cowen.

By Fionnan Sheahan and Patricia McDonagh
Thursday, 18 November 2010

Taoiseach Brian Cowen gives his reaction to the reports on the banking crisis at Government Buildings in Dublin.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen gives his reaction to the reports on the banking crisis at Government Buildings in Dublin.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen last night dismissed claims he had misled the Irish public on bailout talks as he struggled to contain a growing backlash on his handling of the crisis.

Tensions rose within the Coalition last night with both Green Party and Fianna Fail backbenchers critical of the Government's public comments on the bailout.

The Greens have remained quiet over the past five days as their Fianna Fail counterparts denied the Government was engaged in any talks on a bailout.

Mr Cowen resorted to shooting the messenger and blaming the media as the Irish government's credibility came under fire.

After blaming the international media earlier in the week, he turned on the domestic media, claiming organisations were trying "to suggest there is something problematic here".

Mr Cowen insisted he was levelling with the people and protecting the country's interests as discussions continued.

"We haven't started any negotiations. I want to get away from this word game," he said.

But Fianna Fail TD Sean Power said last night the Coalition could not continue to treat the electorate "like fools".

"Last week was a poor one for this Government. We failed our people, treating them as if they could not understand the complexities of the financial situation that we are in," he said.

"We engaged in a game of semantics, where we started trying to play a cute game about words, what they meant or might mean, instead of using the opportunity that was presented to us," he said.

A senior Green Party figure said the basis for being in government was made "much more difficult" by the affair.

Following days of Fianna Fail making spurious claims that reports of the talks were "fiction", Green Party chairman Dan Boyle has indicated there was a breach of trust.

"There is a questioning of trust and an adding to uncertainty that is making the basis for being in government much more difficult," Mr Boyle said.

He subsequently watered down his comments, but it is understood elements within the Greens were not happy with the Government's consistent denials of any talks.

Despite a high-level delegation arriving today, Mr Cowen insisted again yesterday there is no question of the government being involved in discussions on a bailout.

Mr Cowen said "pejorative terms" like 'bailout' did not help the situation.

He said Ireland was working with its European partners on issues that were affecting the euro area and the Ireland.

Mr Cowen confirmed officials from the Irish Department of Finance, the Central Bank and the NTMA would be involved in talks with the European Commission, European Central Bank and the IMF.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said the banking policy of the Government had been a "catastrophic failure".

He said the Europeans and IMF were not coming to say "Hello, keep at it, Brian", and the arrival of the delegation would bring a set of strict conditions.



Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/i-did-not-mislead-public-on-ireland-bailout-talks-says-irish-pm-brian-cowen-15007216.html#ixzz15e3KgTA6
18/11/2010 15:45 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Der Spiegel :Portugal -Spanien - Griechenland: Allianz der Finanzschwachen

Euro-Krise

Europa wird zum Finanz-Schlachtfeld

Von Sebastian Fischer und Florian Gathmann

Foto: AP

Portugal -Spanien - Griechenland: Allianz der Finanzschwachen

 

Zur Großansicht
DPA

Athen hat zwar schon eine Rettungsaktion hinter sich - aber gerettet ist Griechenland trotz der Milliarden-Hilfen der EU-Mitglieder noch lange nicht. Für die Griechen geht es darum, so schnell wie möglich wieder kreditwürdig zu sein und damit auf eigenen Füßen stehen zu können. Darum kämpfen zurzeit auch die Nachbarländer Spanien und Portugal, die viele Experten neben Irland als Krisen-Kandidaten der EU ausgemacht haben.

Was Athen, Madrid und Lissabon eint: Sie sind sauer auf Kanzlerin Merkel, weil sich die Bundesregierung für eine künftige Gläubigerbeteiligung im nationalen Krisenfall ausgesprochen hat - was ihrer Meinung nach die Zinsen für Staatsanleihen in die Höhe treibt.

Nicht ganz auf einer Linie sind die drei Länder dagegen in der Irland-Frage: Portugal und Spanien sind für rasche Hilfen, weil sie im Fall des irischen Kollapses ein Überschwappen der Krise auf ihre Volkswirtschaften fürchten, und machen deshalb massiv Druck auf Dublin. Diese Sorgen muss man sich in Griechenland nicht mehr machen. Dort ist längst Krise

19/11/2010 12:07 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema Hay 1 comentario.

Ireland in last-minute bid to avoid stigma of bank bailout

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By Fionnan Sheahan
Friday, 19 November 2010

The Irish government has drawn up a last-ditch plan to avoid being forced to accept an EU bank bailout.

It wants to borrow money for the banks — supported by a guarantee from the European Central Bank.

That would mean technically avoiding a bailout and the politically damaging perception of a loss of sovereignty.

However, it would also risk alienating EU leaders who are convinced the government should take the bailout and get on with restoring the public finances.

And regardless of what sort of ‘bailout’ eventually emerges there will be strict budgetary conditions attached and the government will have to enforce a draconian budget next month.

The revelation came as a high-powered delegation from the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrived in Dublin yesterday to begin negotiations on a deal to restore confidence in the economy.

Mergers, nationalisation and the forced sales of banks will all be on the table when European officials sit down to debate a potential EU bailout for the sector.

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is also coming under fresh pressure to raise Ireland’s corporation tax rate, vital to keeping over 100,000 jobs.

The government’s counter-proposal would involve Ireland borrowing billions on the markets to support the ailing banks itself, possibly with the help of its European partners.

If Dublin could raise the money at a low rate of interest instead of accepting a bailout from the EU, Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his ministers could continue to run the country and not be forced to hand over control to the IMF.

It has been learned discussions around achieving this solution are continuing. It could only work with the EU providing some form of support or guarantee on Ireland’s ability to repay its debts.

Mr Cowen continued to insist last night that Ireland was not in talks on a bailout for the country.

“We haven’t started any negotiations. I want to get away from this word game,” he said.

A spokesman for Brian Lenihan said the Government would “wait and see where the discussions lead to”



19/11/2010 15:33 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema Hay 1 comentario.

La Hiperinflacción ,su cercanía y sus consecuencias.

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¡Cuidado, la inflación tiene ancas de rana! Decálogo para estar preparado



A la verdad la llevan al matadero todos los días. La mentira recibe todas las atenciones y cuidados posibles y a la verdad la asesinan diariamente, en silencio. Y en ese silencio...



@Ricardo Santos - 20/11/2010 06:00h

Un monje que cambió su Ferrari por un pedazo de queso dijo una vez que si echamos una rana en una cazuela con agua excesivamente caliente, el anfibio percibirá el peligro y saltará inmediatamente para ponerse a salvo. Caso contrario, si la situamos en agua tibia y subimos la temperatura gradualmente… entonces el anfibio se quedará chapoteando tranquilamente, y acostumbrándose al cambio de temperatura, acabará por morir hervido.

 

Lo cierto es que, aunque no lo percibamos, los gobiernos suelen cocinarnos a los ciudadanos al fuego lento de la inflación, aumentando su liquidez en detrimento de nuestros ahorros. Gracias a esta inflación monetaria (la que no proviene de las preferencias de los consumidores y del ciclo económico), cada unidad de dinero vale menos con el paso del tiempo, lo que ayuda a llevar (encubiertamente) de una forma más liviana y apacible la carga del erario público.

 
En 1956 Philip Cagan estableció la definición clásica de hiperinflación: una subida mensual de más del 50% en precios (lo que equivale a un impresionante 12.875% anual). Está claro que en este escenario tercermundista, el valor del dinero se pierde antes de que la tinta se seque en los billetes (de muchos ceros) y la mejor inversión es una escopeta. Sin querer ser agoreros, ni llegar a esos extremos, creemos que es conservador prepararse para una versión mucho más diluida (pero no por ello menos peligrosa) de un shock de precios (una subida de precios súbita que genere una devaluación de la divisa y una subida de los tipos de interés, que es lo que sucede en la mayoría de estos casos), aunque tampoco sea nuestro escenario central.

 

Simplemente creemos conveniente establecer un pequeño decálogo de urgencia para estar preparados. Por si las moscas.  

   1.
      La primera regla de un escenario de inflación elevada es que un euro hoy es menos que un euro mañana por aumento del coste de la vida.
   2.
      La segunda regla es que un euro hoy es menos que un euro mañana también por el mero lapso temporal. El tiempo se come el dinero.
   3.
      Dos palabras: activos tangibles. Enfocarse en preservar el patrimonio. Invertir en sectores o bienes duraderos. Invertir en activos que pervivan y/o que vayamos a utilizar de todos modos y que sirvan durante mucho tiempo.
   4.
      Pensar en términos reales y en el largo plazo. Invertir pensando en el largo plazo, y sin dejarse engañar por la inflación: las inversiones a corto plazo darán resultados distorsionados (parecerán ofrecer beneficios, mientras que en realidad estamos teniendo pérdidas).
   5.
      Intentar, en la medida de lo posible, mantener el dinero en divisas que no vayan a devaluarse.
   6.
      Respecto al ahorro: en un shock de inflación el crédito se vuelve más escaso y caro (los inversores exigen más). Esto conlleva varias lecturas. Una, negociar duro los depósitos y conseguir una alta remuneración, para al menos en parte, seguir el ritmo de la inflación. La diversificación de depósitos en diferentes bancos es una buena idea ya que algunos bancos probablemente quebrarán. Dos, negociar una tasa fija aceptable para las deudas (si es posible) o liquidarlas (el coste de vida y los intereses subirán, haciendo más difícil el  servicio de la misma). Y tres, en la medida de lo posible pagar en cash (valdrá menos).
   7.
      Respecto a la inversión... Uno, tener cuidado con la compra de bonos: las altas tasas de inflación pueden destruir completamente el valor de los bonos a largo plazo (básicamente, una segunda derivada de pensar en términos reales, no nominales); y dos, saber, por el contrario, que la renta variable y los activos reales constituyen un buena protección sobre la inflación a largo plazo.
   8.
      No pensar en costes históricos. En tiempos de inflación elevada, no se funciona con LIFO o FIFO, si no con NIFO (Next In First Out), lo que importa no es lo que se ha pagado en el pasado, es el coste de reposición futuro.
   9.
      Ampliar el círculo de suministradores de capital (recordemos, crédito estrecho y caro), lo que incluye a establecer lazos con clientes y suministradores para dar mercado a los clientes y facilitar nuestras compras y las suyas.
  10.
      Vivir de manera racional: pensar en la cantidad y la frecuencia con que se necesita algo y luego comprar lo que se necesite, gastando en los no-recurrentes con moderación.   

Puede sonar a advertencia taciturna y alarmista. Como en el cuento de Pedro y el lobo, la reiteración de una amenaza que no se materializa pasa de ser considerada un elemento real a un simple desvarío. Lo mismo sucede con la inflación elevada… Hasta que un día llega. Y salta. Después de todo, la inflación también tiene ancas de rana.

20/11/2010 16:02 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Ireland Becomes Second Euro Nation to Seek Aid

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Ireland Becomes Second Euro Nation to Seek Aid

Nov 22, 2010 8:31 am ET

(Adds Green Party in paragraph two.)

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland became the second euro country to seek a rescue as the cost of saving its banks threatened a rerun of the Greek debt crisis that destabilized the currency.

The euro erased gains and Irish bonds pared an early advance after Moody’s Investors Service said a “ multi-notch” downgrade in Ireland’s Aa2 credit rating was “most likely.” The prospect of January elections loomed as the Green Party said it would pull out of Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s coalition.

A package that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates may total 95 billion euros (0 billion) failed to damp speculation that Portugal and Spain would need to tap the emergency fund set up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund after the Greece rescue.

“It probably won’t halt contagion. The sovereign crisis isn’t yet over,” said Sylvain Broyer, chief euro-region economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. “Ireland is in the middle of a difficult crisis.”

The aid, which Irish officials said as recently as Nov. 15 they didn’t need, marks the latest blow to an economy that more than doubled in the decade ending in 2006. The bursting of the real-estate bubble in 2008 plunged the country into a recession and brought its banks close to collapse. With Irish bond yields near a record high, policy makers are trying to keep the crisis from spreading.

Threat to Euro

“Clearly because of the size of their loan books, the huge risks they took, they became a threat not only to the state but to the” entire euro region, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told Dublin-based RTE radio in an interview today. “The banks will be downsized to the real needs of the Irish economy” to “Irish consumers and Irish businesses. That has to be the primary focus of Irish banks.”

The euro slid 0.3 percent to .3633 at 1:30 p.m. in London. The yield on Irish 10-year notes fell 5 basis points to 8.30 percent after falling as low as 8.11 percent.

The U.K. and Sweden may contribute bilateral loans, the EU said in a statement. Lenihan declined to say how big the package will be, saying that it will be less than 100 billion euros. Goldman Sachs Chief European Economist Erik Nielsen said yesterday the government needs 65 billion euros to fund itself for the next three years and 30 billion euros for the banks.

Deficit, Banks

Talks will focus on the government’s deficit cutting plans and restructuring the banking system, the EU said in a statement. Cowen who spoke at the same press briefing as Lenihan, said the banks will be stress tested. Ireland nationalized Anglo Irish Bank Corp. in 2009 and is preparing to take a majority stake in Allied Irish Banks Plc, the second- largest bank.

Irish banks may get immediate capital injections, Matthew Elderfield, the country’s head of financial regulation, said in a speech today. The country’s two biggest lenders need at least 5 billion euros immediately, Ciaran Callaghan, an analyst with NCB Stockbrokers, wrote in a note to clients on Nov. 18.

The package for Ireland will total as much as 60 percent of gross domestic product, compared with 47 percent for Greece.

Cowen plans to announce the government’s four-year budget plan this week and said an agreement with the EU and the IMF will come “in the next few weeks.”

The Green Party said today it will quit the government after the budget is passed, leaving Cowen without a majority in parliament. Irish voters “feel misled” by the government, leader John Gormley said at a press conference in Dublin.

No ‘Bogeyman’

Irish officials initially resisted pressure from the EU to take any aid, saying they were fully funded until the middle of 2011. European leaders sought to head off contagion from Ireland and reduce pressure on the European Central Bank to prop up the country’s lenders by providing them with unlimited liquidity.

Cowen defended his reversal on the need for aid. “I don’t accept I’m the bogeyman,” he said. “Now circumstances have changed, we’ve changed our policies.”

The bailout follows two years of budget cuts that failed to restore market confidence as the cost of shoring up the financial industry soared.

Lenihan cancelled bond auctions for October and November and announced 6 billion euros of austerity measures for 2011 on Nov. 4 in a bid to restore investor confidence. Those efforts failed after German Chancellor Angela Merkel triggered an investor exodus by saying bondholders should foot some of the bill in any future bailout.

Irish Spread

The risk premium on Ireland’s 10-year debt over German bunds, Europe’s benchmark, fell to 523 basis points today. It widened to a record 652 basis points on Nov. 11, with the yield reaching a record 9.1 percent. In 2007, it cost Ireland less than Germany to borrow. Its 10-year spread then fell to as low as 77 basis points less than bunds. The ISEQ stock index has plunged 70 percent from its record in 2007.

Ireland will draw on the 750-billion-euro fund set up by the EU and IMF in May as part of the Greek bailout to protect the currency shared by 16 countries.

Yields on bonds of Spain and Portugal have jumped amid concern that fallout from Ireland would spread. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds instead of German bunds climbed to a record 484 basis points on Nov. 11.

“Speculative actions against Portugal and Spain are not justified, though it can’t be excluded,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said today on RTL Luxembourg radio. “In a moment where financial markets have an excessive tendency to punish those countries that didn’t stick 100 percent to an orthodox consolidation, one can never exclude that similar things will happen.”

--With assistance from Finbarr Flynn in Dublin, Simone Meier in Zurich, Boris Groendahl in Vienna, Jones Hayden in Brussels, Sandrine Rastello in Washington, Alisa Odenheimer in Jerusalem and Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels. Editors: James Hertling, Fergal O’Brien

22/11/2010 15:30 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Irish Bonds Lead Spanish, Portuguese, Greek Debt Lower on S&P.

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Nov 24, 2010 11:26 am ET

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Irish bonds led declines by the euro region’s most indebted members after a two-notch sovereign downgrade by Standard & Poor’s deepened concern the nation’s fiscal crisis will spread.

Spanish and Greek securities fell after Ireland’s credit was lowered to A from AA- by S&P, which cited the mounting cost of bailing out the nation’s banks. German bonds slid after demand weakened at a sale of new 10-year debt and stock markets rose. Portuguese bonds declined as workers walked out in the nation’s biggest strike for 22 years. Irish bonds stayed lower after Ireland announced a budget plan to stave off bankruptcy.

“There’s a lot of fear and concern,” said Michael Leister, a fixed-income analyst at WestLB AG in Dusseldorf, Germany. “The key issue is if, or by how much, Spain will get dragged into this. Ireland and Portugal are manageable in terms of cost. The market is worried that, given the size of Spain, it’s a different animal.”

Irish 10-year yields jumped 48 basis points to 9.12 percent at 4:19 p.m. in London. The 5 percent security due October 2020 tumbled 2.52, or 25.20 euros per 1,000-euro (,337) face amount, to 73.85 Portuguese 10-year yields advanced 12 basis points to 7.18 percent.

Similar-maturity Spanish yields climbed 17 basis points to 5.09 percent, while German 10-year yields rose 10 basis points to 2.65 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between Irish and German 10-year yields widened 31 basis points to 617 basis points, according to Bloomberg generic data, while the Spanish-German spread was one basis point wider at 235 after reaching a record 249.

Bank Injections

The euro strengthened 0.1 percent to .3374, trimming this week’s drop to 2.2 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index of shares climbed 1.1 percent. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields gained 11 basis points to 2.88 percent.

Ireland’s government said it will cut spending by about 20 percent and raise taxes over the next four years as talks with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union over a bailout of the country near conclusion.

Welfare cuts of 2.8 billion euros and income-tax increases of 1.9 billion euros are among the steps planned to narrow the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2014. The shortfall will be 12 percent of GDP this year, or 32 percent including a banking rescue.

The EU-IMF rescue package may be about 85 billion euros, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said today.

German Debt Sale

Germany sold about 4.8 billion euros of 2.5 percent bonds maturing in January 2021 at an average yield of 2.59 percent. Investors bid for 1.2 times the securities issued, the lowest so-called bid-to-cover ratio for a 10-year auction since February 2009.

“The auction in Germany and the strong negative tone in the U.S. Treasury market helped push up German yields,” said Patrick Jacq, a senior fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “There’s been some profit taking after yesterday’s strong rally.”

German bonds also fell as a report showed business confidence in Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly surged to a record in November. The Munich-based Ifo institute said its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 109.3 from 107.7 in October. Economists predicted a decline to 107.5, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

S&P’s cut leaves Ireland’s debt five steps above Greece, which has the highest junk, or high-risk, classification. Ireland may be lowered again, the ratings company said. Moody’s Investors Service said two days ago that a “multi-notch” downgrade in Ireland’s credit rating was “most likely” because the bailout would increase the nation’s debt burden.

Collective Action

“The Irish government looks set to borrow over and above our previous projections to fund further bank capital injections into Ireland’s troubled banking system,” S&P said in a statement late yesterday. The fact the debt may be lowered again reflects the risk that talks on an EU-led rescue may fail to staunch capital flight, it said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants buyers of new euro- region bonds to accept liability clauses starting in 2011, two years before a revamped crisis-management system kicks in, a government document shows. The “blanket” introduction of standardized collective-action clauses for all government bonds issued in the 16-nation euro region would be “unproblematic” and should begin next year, according to the Finance Ministry document, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

Bonds of Ireland, Portugal and Greece have slumped since EU leaders agreed on Oct. 29 to consider Germany’s proposal for a permanent rescue mechanism as of 2013. The plan would involve debt restructuring, with losses for private investors in sovereign bonds.

Banks Plunge

“Day by day, we are getting fresh details of the German proposal and this is impacting the market today,” said Kornelius Purps, a fixed-income strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “There is little reason to become more optimistic on the periphery at this point.”

Irish bonds also fell as the government prepared to inject more capital into Bank of Ireland Plc, the nation’s largest bank, a step that may make it the fifth lender to fall under majority state control in less than two years.

Shares in Bank of Ireland, already 36 percent owned by the state, fell 9.3 percent in Dublin, after sinking as much as 37 percent. Allied Irish Banks Plc, the second-largest lender, which already faces the prospect of more than 90 percent state ownership, slid as much as 24 percent.

ECB Borrowing

Euro-region banks borrowed 38.2 billion euros from the European Central Bank in 91-day loans today, double the 19.1 billion-euros expiring. Economists expected them to ask for 29 billion euros, according to the median of eight forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The increase is probably due to the fact that Irish, Portuguese and Greek banks increased their positions, most likely, in our view, for precautionary reasons because of the current tough market situation,” Giuseppe Maraffino, a fixed- income strategist at Barclays Plc in London, wrote in a research report today.

Portugal led a jump in the cost of insuring against default on European sovereign debt, according to traders of credit- default swaps.

Contracts on Portuguese government bonds were at 481 basis points, down from 487 yesterday, according to data provider CMA in London. Swaps on Ireland were little changed at 575, Spain slipped 3 basis points to 298, and Greece dropped 43 basis points to 977.

EU policy makers must show “meaningful actions” to head off a “spreading disaster” in the euro region, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co.

Ireland is getting “uncomfortably close to a devastating banking crisis that would derail growth, employment and wealth creation for a whole generation,” El-Erian wrote in an article for the Financial Times.

--With assistance from Abigail Moses in London. Editors: Daniel Tilles, Keith Campbell

24/11/2010 17:57 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

New York Times : A Spanish Bailout Would Test Europe’s Strained Finances

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 A Spanish Bailout Would Test Europe’s Strained Finances By RAPHAEL MINDER Published: November 24, 2010 * Recommend * Twitter * Sign In to E-Mail * Print * Single Page * Reprints * ShareClose o Linkedin o Digg o Mixx o MySpace o Yahoo! Buzz o Permalink o MADRID — Europe so far has survived the bailout of Greece. The financial rescue of Ireland also is manageable. Even if Portugal becomes the third country to succumb and seek aid, as many people widely predict, it is unlikely to push Europe to the financial brink. Enlarge This Image Daniel Ochoa De Olza/Associated Press A broker on the floor of the stock exchange in Madrid on Wednesday. Enlarge This Image Juanjo Martin/EFE, via European Pressphoto Agency Elena Salgado, Spain’s finance minister, right, and Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, a deputy prime minister, at a meeting about employment this month. But any bailout of Spain — with an economy twice the size of the other three combined — could severely stress the ability of Europe’s stronger countries to help the financially weaker ones, and spell deep trouble for the euro, Europe’s common currency. Even though Spain, like Ireland, has adopted an austerity plan to help it avoid the need for a bailout, it still could need aid if its banking system proves frailer than the government thinks it is, as was the case in Ireland. This troubling possibility has unnerved lenders, with Spain’s borrowing costs rising even though Madrid has cut its deficit and the country’s banks maintain they have sufficient strength to absorb their bad real estate loans. “Europe can afford the collapse of Ireland, even perhaps that of Portugal, but not that of Spain, so Spain’s ultimate line of defense is in fact this knowledge that it’s too big to fail and that it represents a systemic risk for the euro,” said Pablo Vázquez, an economist at the Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada, a research institute here. Reflecting the worries of investors, the yield spread between Spanish 10-year government bonds and those of Germany continued to widen on Wednesday — to as high as 2.59 percentage points, the biggest gap since the introduction of the euro. Spreads typically widen when investors perceive greater risk of not being repaid. The problem for Spain is one of “self-fulfilling expectations,” said Jordi Galí, director of the Center for Research in International Economics at Barcelona’s Pompeu Fabra university. “If investors expect Spain to have trouble refinancing its debt, now or somewhere down the road, then Spain will have trouble,” he added. “This is only aggravated by the fact that the reluctance of investors to purchase the country’s public debt leads to an increase in the interest rate it has to pay and thus in the budget deficit and the amount of debt it has to issue.” Elena Salgado, Spain’s finance minister, insisted on Wednesday that Spain would not need rescuing. She told Spanish radio that “we are in the best position to resist against these speculative attacks.” Indeed, some say that one of Spain’s relative strengths is that a large amount of its government debt — 203.3 billion euros (1.1 billion) — is owed to its own banks, rather than foreign lenders. If the government’s financial condition worsens, the thinking goes, Spanish banks would have a greater incentive to help out by easing terms on the loans than would foreign banks, which might take a harder line. Of course, it is a bit of a double-edged sword; if the Spanish banks need to ease terms to help the government, they could be forced to swallow steep losses, hurting their balance sheets. The likelihood of entering such a vicious circle could also rise next year, when Spain is due to repay lenders 192 billion euros, or about a fifth of the total debt. As a result of increasing interest it would have to pay for new borrowing, Spain faces a rise of 18 percent in the cost of financing its debt, according to the government’s budgetary plan. Investor nervousness is mounting just as Madrid is reining in a budget deficit that reached 11.1 percent of gross domestic product last year. Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, initially slow to recognize the crisis, narrowly pushed through Parliament last May an austerity package that included 15 billion euros of spending cuts. As a result, Spain’s central government deficit fell 47 percent in the first 10 months of this year, according to government figures released on Tuesday. Ireland also made steep spending cuts, but still needed a bailout. The main reason is that its banks were a lot more troubled than the government realized, and it could not afford the cost of supporting them without help from Europe. The looming question is whether Spanish banks are really as healthy as the government and the banks say they are.

25/11/2010 23:14 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Spain :The bailout Costs of the big elephant.

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Bailout Costs

Spanish bonds extended declines after the Financial Times Deutschland reported that the European Central Bank and a majority of euro-region states are calling on Portugal to tap the rescue fund to prevent Spain from also having to seek help. That followed comments from Bundesbank President Axel Weber late on Nov. 24 that if the 750 billion-euro rescue fund isn’t enough to reassure markets, “it will have to be increased.”

Steven Major, global head of fixed-income research at HSBC Holdings Plc in London, said in a Nov. 8 report that the fund, financed by the EU and International Monetary Fund, may not be sufficient.

In practice, the EU may only be able to deploy 367 billion euros of its 440 billion-euro share of the European Financial Stability Facility, he says. That’s because the EFSF will raise the money for the bailouts by issuing bonds and must set aside a cash pile to secure a AAA credit rating, Major said. A three- year bailout of Portugal would require 51.5 billion euros and Spain would need 351 billion euros, HSBC said.

“The big elephant in the room is Spain, which is too big to fail and too big to be bailed out,” Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said in an interview Nov. 23. “In some sense though, Spain is in a better place.”

Too Big to Bail?

Asked whether its size would deter an EU bailout, Bank of Spain chief economist Jose Luis Malo de Molina said late yesterday that “the systemic importance” of a country like Spain “reinforces the incentives and stimuli for the rest of the countries to be ready to help in the case that it were necessary.” He said market tensions can become a “self- fulfilling prophecy.”

The Spanish government, which has repeatedly ruled out external help, doesn’t face the first of its 45 billion euros in bond redemptions next year until April. It has two more bond auctions scheduled for December, and Deputy Finance Minister Jose Manuel Campa said in an interview Nov. 24 that spending cuts and higher-than-forecast revenue make the government’s funding “quite comfortable.”

Campa says there’s no need for additional measures to stem contagion and instead Spain must show its commitment to implementing the budget cuts and structural changes already announced to reduce the deficit to 6 percent of GDP next year from 11 percent in 2009. The target is “unconditional,” he said.

26/11/2010 11:20 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Alemania defiende al euro hasta el máximo dolor.

Teure Rettung

(191) Drucken Bewerten   Autor: Jan Dams und Jan Hildebrand| 27.11.2010

Deutschland kommt beim Euro an die Schmerzgrenze

Widerstand gegen die Euro-Rettung: Politiker aus FDP und CDU wettern gegen die Idee einer "Transferunion", bei der Deutschland Milliarden überweisen müsste.

Die Diskussion um eine Vergrößerung des Euro-Rettungsschirms strapaziert zunehmend die deutsche Hilfsbereitschaft. Führende Politiker der schwarz-gelben Koalition haben vor weiteren Belastungen gewarnt. „Es kann nicht sein, dass die Steuerzahler für Strukturprobleme in verschiedenen europäischen Staaten ständig aufkommen und ins Risiko gehen“, sagte der finanzpolitische Sprecher der Unionsfraktion, Leo Dautzenberg (CDU), der „Welt am Sonntag“.

Bundestag Foto: dapd/DAPD Unter Druck: Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel muss sich mahnende Worte aus den Reihen von CDU und FDP anhören

Es sei „wagemutig, bereits heute von einem Aufstocken des Schutzschirms zu reden, ohne den Bundestag einzubinden“.

Dautzenberg reagierte damit auf eine Äußerung von Bundesbank-Chef Axel Weber, der eine Erhöhung ins Spiel gebracht hatte (hier). In der EU-Kommission wird sogar über eine Verdoppelung des 750 Milliarden Euro schweren Rettungsschirms nachgedacht. Deutschland trägt an dem Hilfsmechanismus, der von der Pleite bedrohte Staaten mit Bürgschaften stützen soll, den größten Anteil.

Die Euro-Sorgenkinder

Die FDP lehnt einen größeren Rettungsschirm ab. „Das führt zu einer Transferunion, da machen wir nicht mit“, sagte Volker Wissing, finanzpolitischer Sprecher der FDP-Fraktion. Jedes Land müsse für seine Schulden selbst verantwortlich bleiben. „Daran halten wir eisern fest.“ In einer Transferunion müssen die starken die schwachen EU-Staaten unterstützen, ähnlich wie beim Länderfinanzausgleich der Bundesrepublik. Im Extremfall würde das Deutschland 260 Milliarden Euro jährlich kosten, hat der Ökonom Kai Konrad vom Max-Planck-Institut in München für die „Welt am Sonntag“ berechnet (hier).

Statt eines unbegrenzten Schutzschirms schlägt die Bundesregierung einen permanenten Krisenmechanismus vor, der auch eine finanzielle Beteiligung von privaten Gläubigern bei möglichen Staatspleiten beinhaltet. Banken müssten dann auf einen Teil ihrer Forderungen verzichten. „Das durchbricht den gegenwärtigen Teufelskreis und schafft klare Bedingungen“, sagte Unionsfraktionsvize Michael Meister. Auch liege „darin das gebotene Signal gegen eine Transferunion“.

Der Druck auf Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel steigt: In der Koalition wird gefordert, dass sie eine weitgehende Beteiligung von Gläubigern durchsetzt. Dagegen aber regt sich in der EU Widerstand. Selbst mit dem bisherigen Euro-Verbündeten Frankreich ist sich die Regierung in Detailfragen nicht einig.

28/11/2010 11:35 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Krugman :The others are tapas; Spain is the main course.

Op-Ed Columnist

The Spanish Prisoner

The best thing about the Irish right now is that there are so few of them. By itself, Ireland can’t do all that much damage to Europe’s prospects. The same can be said of Greece and of Portugal, which is widely regarded as the next potential domino.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Paul Krugman

But then there’s Spain. The others are tapas; Spain is the main course.

What’s striking about Spain, from an American perspective, is how much its economic story resembles our own. Like America, Spain experienced a huge property bubble, accompanied by a huge rise in private-sector debt. Like America, Spain fell into recession when that bubble burst, and has experienced a surge in unemployment. And like America, Spain has seen its budget deficit balloon thanks to plunging revenues and recession-related costs.

But unlike America, Spain is on the edge of a debt crisis. The U.S. government is having no trouble financing its deficit, with interest rates on long-term federal debt under 3 percent. Spain, by contrast, has seen its borrowing cost shoot up in recent weeks, reflecting growing fears of a possible future default.

Why is Spain in so much trouble? In a word, it’s the euro.

Spain was among the most enthusiastic adopters of the euro back in 1999, when the currency was introduced. And for a while things seemed to go swimmingly: European funds poured into Spain, powering private-sector spending, and the Spanish economy experienced rapid growth.

Through the good years, by the way, the Spanish government appeared to be a model of both fiscal and financial responsibility: unlike Greece, it ran budget surpluses, and unlike Ireland, it tried hard (though with only partial success) to regulate its banks. At the end of 2007 Spain’s public debt, as a share of the economy, was only about half as high as Germany’s, and even now its banks are in nowhere near as bad shape as Ireland’s.

But problems were developing under the surface. During the boom, prices and wages rose more rapidly in Spain than in the rest of Europe, helping to feed a large trade deficit. And when the bubble burst, Spanish industry was left with costs that made it uncompetitive with other nations.

Now what? If Spain still had its own currency, like the United States — or like Britain, which shares some of the same characteristics — it could have let that currency fall, making its industry competitive again. But with Spain on the euro, that option isn’t available. Instead, Spain must achieve “internal devaluation”: it must cut wages and prices until its costs are back in line with its neighbors.

And internal devaluation is an ugly affair. For one thing, it’s slow: it normally take years of high unemployment to push wages down. Beyond that, falling wages mean falling incomes, while debt stays the same. So internal devaluation worsens the private sector’s debt problems.

What all this means for Spain is very poor economic prospects over the next few years. America’s recovery has been disappointing, especially in terms of jobs — but at least we’ve seen some growth, with real G.D.P. more or less back to its pre-crisis peak, and we can reasonably expect future growth to help bring our deficit under control. Spain, on the other hand, hasn’t recovered at all. And the lack of recovery translates into fears about Spain’s fiscal future.

Should Spain try to break out of this trap by leaving the euro, and re-establishing its own currency? Will it? The answer to both questions is, probably not. Spain would be better off now if it had never adopted the euro — but trying to leave would create a huge banking crisis, as depositors raced to move their money elsewhere. Unless there’s a catastrophic bank crisis anyway — which seems plausible for Greece and increasingly possible in Ireland, but unlikely though not impossible for Spain — it’s hard to see any Spanish government taking the risk of “de-euroizing.”

So Spain is in effect a prisoner of the euro, leaving it with no good options.

The good news about America is that we aren’t in that kind of trap: we still have our own currency, with all the flexibility that implies. By the way, so does Britain, whose deficits and debt are comparable to Spain’s, but which investors don’t see as a default risk.

The bad news about America is that a powerful political faction is trying to shackle the Federal Reserve, in effect removing the one big advantage we have over the suffering Spaniards. Republican attacks on the Fed — demands that it stop trying to promote economic recovery and focus instead on keeping the dollar strong and fighting the imaginary risks of inflation — amount to a demand that we voluntarily put ourselves in the Spanish prison.

Let’s hope that the Fed doesn’t listen. Things in America are bad, but they could be much worse. And if the hard-money faction gets its way, they will be.

29/11/2010 17:12 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.

Spain Banks Face Funding Hurdle Amid Bailout Threat

Nov 30, 2010 5:57 am ET

(Updates prices from third paragraph, adds Citigroup note in seventh paragraph.)

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Spain’s banks may struggle to refinance about 85 billion euros (1 billion) in debt next year as costs surge on concern continental Europe’s fourth- biggest economy may need an Irish-style bailout.

“There’s a universal dumping of Spain going on,” said Andrea Williams, who helps manage about 623 million pounds (8 million), including shares in Banco Santander SA, at Royal London Asset Management. “The fear is that Portugal, Spain and Italy are now in line after what happened in Ireland.”

Anxiety over Spain’s ability to bring down the euro- region’s third-highest budget deficit after Europe handed Ireland an 85 billion-euro aid package has driven up financing costs for the country’s lenders already battered by rising bad loans and falling revenue. The average yield investors demand to hold euro-denominated Spanish bank bonds, relative to government debt, rose 141 basis points to 385 basis points in November -- the biggest monthly jump on record, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp.

As the cost of insuring the country’s debt against default rose to its highest level, Spanish lenders now pay the biggest premium ever on their debt relative to other banks in Europe. Spreads on Spanish bank bonds in euros rose to a record 166 basis points more than the average for all lender debt denominated in the currency, up from a gap of 63 basis points on Oct. 31, according to Bank of America data.

‘Big Elephant’

The risk for Europe is that Spain’s economy is twice as big as that of Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined, meaning the euro region’s 750 billion-euro bailout fund may not be big enough if the country resorts to aid. Spain’s 10-year government bonds slid yesterday by the most since the euro’s debut. The extra yield investors demand to hold the securities instead of benchmark German bunds widened to euro-era records.

“The big elephant in the room is not Portugal but, of course, it’s Spain,” Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the global financial crisis, said at a conference in Prague yesterday. “There is not enough official money to bail out Spain if trouble occurs.”

The European Central Bank may have to step up purchases of Spanish government bonds and backstop its banking system if the country runs into financing difficulties, Willem Buiter, Citigroup Inc.’s chief economist, said in a note to investors yesterday. “Once Spain needs assistance, the support of the ECB will be critical,” Buiter wrote.

Bond Sales Fall

Spanish financial companies sold 300 million euros of bonds in Europe this month, excluding debt with government guarantees, compared with 2.37 billion euros in the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Spain says the government’s finances and the country’s banks are sound. The lenders are “fundamentally healthy,” Jose Luis Malo de Molina, chief economist of the Bank of Spain, said in a news conference in Madrid yesterday. “The Spanish financial system does not have a problem of deep frailty such as the Irish economy has.”

The country’s lenders have about 30 percent of their medium- and long-term debt maturing by December 2012, according to the Bank of Spain’s October financial stability report. The report says the fact that 50 percent of maturities fall after 2013 “softens” the refinancing needs of the lenders, even as it advises them to rely more on debt with longer maturities.

Cajas at Risk

“Asking the Spanish banks how they are going to meet these refinancing needs is absolutely a fair question for them,” Claire Kane, a banking analyst at MF Global in London, said in a phone interview.

Four months after the Bank of Spain said publication of stress tests of Spanish lenders “confirm the soundness” of the country’s banking system, investors are again driving up their financing costs. Investor concerns are most likely to focus on the needs of Spain’s savings banks, said Daragh Quinn, an analyst at Nomura International in Madrid.

Savings banks, immersed in a restructuring process that will see their number shrink by almost two-thirds as the central bank coaxes them into cost-saving mergers, have about 30 billion euros of debt coming due next year, according to Bloomberg data.

The cost of insuring the five-year senior debt of Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo, an Alicante-based savings bank, is about 700 basis points compared with about 246 basis points for Santander, Spain’s biggest lender, which earns about 25 percent of profit from its home country as it boosts income from countries such as Brazil and the U.K.

Santander, BBVA

“The government and European policy makers must be looking at what they would need to do if the cajas were unable to refinance next year,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. “It’s at that point the situation would start to look like that which Ireland has suffered.”

Even in the toughest scenario, it’s unlikely funding would be cut off for the strongest Spanish lenders such as Santander, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA or La Caixa, Quinn said.

Spanish lenders can pick among different strategies for bridging a prolonged period of being shut out from the debt markets, said John Raymond, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in London. Those include tapping funding from the European Central Bank, stepping up the already stiff competition for retail deposits or scaling back lending, he said.

ECB Loans Decline

Spanish banks had loans from the ECB of 67.9 billion euros in October, a 30 percent drop from the previous month. Spanish ECB loans as a proportion of banking assets stand at about 2 percent, compared with about 7.8 percent for Ireland.

Santander, which has 27 billion euros in debt maturing next year, said it added 94 billion euros in customer deposits this year and also has as much as 100 billion euros in collateral it can use to tap funds from central banks.

A spokeswoman from Santander, who asked not to be named in line with company policy, declined to comment. The lender’s shares fell as much as 3 percent in Madrid trading today, dropping below their June lows to extend declines this year to 36 percent. Santander was trading at 7.47 euros at 11:54 a.m., a gain of 1.9 percent.

“If Santander were to go to the ECB for 50 billion euros then we really would be in crisis territory,” said Kane. She said that was highly unlikely because Santander can also sell debt through its non-Spanish subsidiaries.

--With assistance from Bryan Keogh and Gabi Thesing in London and Peter Laca in Prague. Editors: Steve Bailey, Frank Connelly.

30/11/2010 14:18 zpeconomiainsostenible Enlace permanente. sin tema No hay comentarios. Comentar.


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