"Welcome to a world without certainties".

EXPERT OPINION
The ocean of uncertainty and problems
Rafael MontaVista, business consultant
04/07/2011 - 15:18

Recently the writer and journalist Vicente Verdú one of his articles titled "Welcome to a world without certainties," can not be more accurate definition of the world situation today.
That all changed so that nothing changes, complicated situations, or call them, are cyclical crisis and eventually reappears, more virulent and less time involved. The good times are like a small blanket to cover us but we always found somewhere to stop, cover and uncover another site. The current situation, we are solving the prescription of the debt, more and more debt, and when the system can not but break out the debt crisis and slip back into another debacle greater and back again.

We are so perched on the short-term vision of the important things that the solutions proposed are mere patches well-intentioned help stabilize emotionally to people, but that serve little more. Do not approach the problem of substance but we enjoy a welfare state that can not pay with our current resources and go into debt to have a bad solution in the long and short term. The uncertainty in decision making, clarifying the problems and, above all, global action makes the situation a permanent headache.

The same people who created the crisis are the same as trying to solve it, the same as they were at their birth are the same that charge exorbitant bonus-of-but the problem is still there. We are moving in concentric circles, shot by decisions that surround the problem but it will attack and, like cornered animals, is enhanced.

What can you think of a ransom to Greece, where the brainy economists put in an amount, and a few months after this amount is useless, having to resort to a second bailout and more importantly, NOR WILL SERVE TO Hellenic NOTHING because the country can not pay the enormous debt he has incurred, or selling the country inch by inch Who are they kidding? The same is true of the accounts of our country, it is perfectly extrapolated.

The disparity of interests to each other and the differences in values ​​make it difficult to solve this problem, because there is a common interest in providing a solution and every one snuggles the coal to its sardine.

In the sixth edition of Global Risk, within the Forum of Davos 2011, states that the world is not able to return to suffer major disruptions. The financial crisis has weakened the strength of the global economy and increased geopolitical tension in all aspects, no more than read the press.
Detailed in this sixth edition, there are also two cross-global risks of particular importance, economic inequality and poor governance. And these in turn affect the evolution of many other global risks and limit our ability to respond to them effectively and needs, the weakness is installed and take a naturalization certificate. It's like the farmer who is spreading a blanket and see the water is overflowing into an area and solves it, then by another and then re-solve, but it is weakening the entire irrigated area and there comes a moment that can not go to all sites. That's when everything falls apart and crashed into a system.

As more union or relationship in the world, so do the distances. It seems a paradox, but a reality. That gap is increasing every day and is a threat to global stability.
Globalization has generated sustained economic growth for a generation: reduced and reshaped the world and increased their degree of interconnectedness and interdependence, but on the other hand, its benefits are unevenly distributed and a minority would have reaped the fruits of a disproportionately and disproportionate.
Follow the appropriate forum and an emphasis on three groups of global and cross-cutting risks are:

Macroeconomic imbalances

A group of risks including macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate volatility, fiscal crises and the collapse of asset prices. Arises from the tension between the growing wealth and influence of emerging economies and high debt levels of advanced economies. On the one hand, countries like China and India, increasingly accumulating reserves and on the other hand, advanced countries can not sustain their standard of living, causing a voltage increase.

The newsletter of January 2011 the Bank of Spain and his article "The reform of economic governance in EMU", states that "lessons from the crisis that began in August 2007, are driving profound changes in various fields, among which the reforms in regulation and supervision of the financial system aimed at restoring adequate controls and develop macro-prudential policy, which prevents the buildup of systemic risks. "

Area illegal economy

The area of ​​the illegal economy. This group includes risks fragile states, illegal trade, organized crime and rampant corruption, the interrelationship of the world, poor governance and economic disparity creates opportunities for activities to flourish outside the law These groups of strength, occupy areas installed everywhere increasingly important, especially where governments show serious shortcomings.

Food and water-energy

The world's rapid population growth and increasing economic prosperity exert unsustainable pressure on resources: estimated demand for water, energy and food to grow between 30% and 50% in the next 20 years, meanwhile, encourage economic inequalities short-term responses in the areas of production and consumption, which are all counter-point to the long-term
"When we thought all was prosperity, we were surprised poverty" and seems to want to install comes with a few years, to reappear in another form and manera.l game is like the rope in which depending on the strength of one either way, go for a site or another.

Rafael Molina MontaVista
[e-mail]
Management consultant