Financial expert believes in the economic future of Switzerland
René Zeyer in conversation with Dirk Müller
54 percent, the export rate in Switzerland. By the rise of the Franks suffered some parts of the economy and competitive advantages were lost, says René Zeyer, author and financial expert from Zurich. And yet, 20 years ago, the decision not to join the European Economic Area, had been very good.
Dirk Mueller: That's a paradox, at least at first glance. As a country has a strong, internationally-respected currency, and threatens to carried away this is why the downward spiral to be. We are talking of Switzerland, Francs. Were German tourists, for example, several years ago for a good one even € 50 francs in the hands, was the exchange rate during the summer holidays almost slipped one to one, thus a € a franc. That was too much accustomed to success for the Confederates: significantly fewer tourists and a lot less exports. Depression! The Fed has pulled the emergency brake then, now there is a minimum exchange rate. For one, there are now at least € 20 a dollar, and this is guaranteed. Thus, the euro crisis has long since become even a Swiss crisis. - Furthermore, we now want to talk with René Zeyer, author and financial expert. Good morning to Zurich.
René Zeyer: Good morning back!
Müller: Mr. Zeyer curse that the Swiss €?
Zeyer: I would not go that far, but I must also correct the same thing initially. The Swiss export economy is booming and will increase. It is now more a wail to a high level, what you hear here from Switzerland. It is true that the German tourist in Switzerland has suffered quite, but apart from the tourism industry in Switzerland it is still dazzling.
Müller: We have some of the misunderstood here, because many have complained so trade associations and industry groups, the fact that it is increasingly difficult to export.
Zeyer: We must stop this, unfortunately, never forget that Switzerland actually - I'm sorry to say that Germany - the real world export champion is. More than half of the gross domestic product of Switzerland is generated in the export industry. On the other hand we have to see, too, that Switzerland is of course a resource-poor country. This means that is most of what is processed, imported. And if it is imported from the euro area, which is obviously beneficial for Switzerland. That is, in the so-called net balances, as for the exchange of EU-Switzerland, Switzerland has in fact just as many advantages as disadvantages of the strong franc.
Müller: We'll talk again about the export quota. They have announced it. 54 percent did, I read, the export rate in Switzerland. In comparison, Germany is "only" 48 percent. As you say, but if the industry is, when the economy is complaining about it, it wails at a high level, so not really true.
Zeyer: There are some parts industry - tourism, you have already mentioned, of course: This is terrible for the Swiss hoteliers, and all those standing around the Matterhorn. On the other side: the export industry in Switzerland, of course, has difficulties due to the high francs by losing competitive advantage. On the other hand, Switzerland has been so for many years on high-tech products, as selected segments of the engineering industry, pharmaceuticals and so on, concentrated, and the areas it is also partially unrivaled.
Müller: We have Mr. Zeyer, yes, the Greece-talk radio this morning in Germany already developed further discussed. To what extent is it a big issue for Switzerland?
Zeyer: It is of course an issue so far, that this lower limit, which has established the Swiss National Bank at 1.20 to one euro, always depends on how the euro will continue. One must never forget that the franc is not too strong, but that the euro is weakening, is ailing, or perhaps even to the death camps. And if there are looming cruel further developments, the Swiss National Bank is of course faced with the problem that she has announced, for holding this course, she's ready to throw in unlimited extent Swiss currency on the market.
Muller: Do you think this is right?
Zeyer: I think it is foolhardy, because one can never forget, when we look at the international situation even now, only a number: Each day, worldwide, worth $ 72 billion francs and euros back and hergetauscht. That said, this is a huge speculative market, as well as in other financial scene, and when should now decide, for example, some large hedge funds and shadow banks and other speculators, the test out, as they say, if the Swiss franc in fact to 1.20 remains, or whether it might not get back down, for example, you must keep up the small Swiss National Bank, of course, with giants, and whether they can and what implications this has for, really is not foreseeable.
Muller: So it could be, Mr. Zeyer, Switzerland sometime Finanzspielchen with these, as you said, with the speculation, is overwhelmed by the devaluation?
Zeyer: That's exactly the problem of today's financial market. Normally yes expresses a ratio of one currency called Purchasing Power Parity. That is, on both sides of the two currencies for the same money you can buy the same amount of goods. This is the beautiful old theory. The new world of financial markets is so that all derivatives, leverage and other speculative elements has gone completely out of control, and what will happen there in the future, which is in the best sense of the word, and even in the worst unpredictable.
Muller: And you say, normally, but you also say the same, this is usually there most likely never again.
Zeyer: As it stands right now. Since there is the collected governments of the industrialized countries have not succeeded, the speculators, banks, gangsters and so on, to rein in, make the further detail, and of course now suffers at the moment then perhaps even the Swiss National Bank.
Mueller: You say that hedge funds are to blame. Are the banks fault?
Zeyer: Yes of course! If we return to the Euro-zone, so the problem lies not only in the you mentioned Greece, which is self-evident failure, but it is indeed the fact that European banks continue to have so many Greeks papers in their books, they can artificially rate much higher than they are actually worth. And if European banks assess these papers only on the current market value would, they would collapse again, or would again, "Help, state, come here and give me money" call.
Müller: How big is because of political freedom in Switzerland?
Zeyer: Well, yes, Switzerland has such a small island position: on the one hand, the island of the blessed, on the other island in Europe. And that the other countries of Europe do not look with favor on Switzerland, but also with envy is, yes absolutely clear. And again: Switzerland and the Swiss National Bank is now economically speaking, of course, in Europe no giant but a dwarf who has tangled with the Goliath, namely the euro.
Muller: And are you sure that Switzerland remains an island?
Zeyer: I think it's a very wise decision. There were in Switzerland in the early 90s, a big discussion over whether to join the then European Economic Area or not, and the Swiss population, which may vote on such things like that, decided majority, not to do that. And I think now, 20 years later, the vast majority of Swiss people are very happy about this decision.
Mueller: ... Because on the continent, it can not?
Zeyer: It has surely shown clearly that the European Union is politically absolutely unable to get the various fiscal policies and monetary policies of various countries to somehow in some way in the handle. When I again would point to Greece: "Greece is a problem - but not at all!" If you just wondered that was a half years ago in Europe more generally, consensus, - And that was exactly 18 months - and today the first politicians are already talking of it, that maybe you should let go but bust Greece.
Müller: Would that be good?
Zeyer: I think that would be the right thing! I mean, it's like in the economy. If a company can not even pay the interest on their debt - and so far so Greece is - then the end of the flagpole. And a so-called orderly liquidation, that is, they say reboot, all creditors have to cut something to his leg, but the good news is, then everyone knows where he stands, and the Greek economy has the ability to bounce would be the only solution to this problem.
Mueller: I do not know, René Zeyer, whether you have noticed that, whether it's been discussed in the Swiss media. In the past week, Chancellor Angela Merkel said in her speech in the Bundestag, the example of Switzerland, you see how it can go one state, if you're not part of this convoy is European. That must sound a bit like a joke to you?
Zeyer: Well said, let's say, Mrs. Merkel has also said yes, the euro fails, Europe fails. I think Mrs. Merkel has unfortunately there is little known that the statements she makes about the European Union and Switzerland, are now really so wrong that not even the opposite would be true.
Muller: And finally we want to keep: You mean to stay, Switzerland needs to Switzerland?
Zeyer: Switzerland will remain in Switzerland. Whether the franc will remain the Franks? The effects of such monetary policy are, of course, the medium in the first place, namely a possibly hyperinflation if the Swiss National Bank also has to produce too much foreign exchange. But I am actually quite honestly, if you ask me so optimistic as far as the future of Switzerland as far as what the future of the EU area.
Müller's book author and financial expert René Zeyer with us this morning in Germany radio. Thank you for your time and good-bye.
Zeyer: Here you go!
Statements of our interlocutors do not necessarily reflect their own views. Germany Radio makes remarks to his interlocutor in interviews and discussions, not our own......
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